Austin’s housing market is holding its ground as 2025 winds down, showing resilience in pricing despite rising inventory and slowing activity.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for November 21, 2025.
Today’s Austin real estate update reflects a market still working through a correction cycle but showing signs of underlying strength in price stability. As of Friday, November 21, 2025, the region holds 15,388 active residential listings, up 14.3 percent from this time last year. Nearly 60 percent of active listings have seen at least one price drop, which confirms seller adjustment to buyer hesitancy. Despite softer demand, median prices are holding, and the market is operating with a slower but steady pace. Pending listings are just 0.8 percent below last year, an indicator that although buyer activity has softened, it has not collapsed. This market continues to move but at a more measured rate, with buyers firmly holding the negotiating power. Overall, the data reflects a market transitioning toward balance, not decline, and long term projections still favor appreciation once the correction phase completes.
Months of Inventory currently sits at 5.47, compared to 4.76 in November 2024, an increase of 14.8 percent. This continues the shift toward a buyer controlled market in many parts of the region. According to the resale market type framework, only 10 percent of activity falls in Seller Acceleration territory, while 27 percent sits in Buyer Advantage and another 20 percent in Buyer Control. Austin itself is at 4.96 months, up 2.3 percent year over year and 13.8 percent for the year to date window. That increase signals slower absorption and a need for more aggressive pricing strategies. While this level of inventory historically leans toward buyer leverage, it remains well below the inventory levels seen in previous major slowdowns. When combined with the fact that nearly six out of ten listings have reduced price at least once, this indicates sellers are reacting to market conditions rather than ignoring them. For buyers, it translates into more options and more negotiating power.
Today’s Activity Index reads 20.2 percent compared to 22.5 percent at this time last year, a drop of 10.6 percent. Resale sits at 17.26 percent, clearly inside the Contraction and Danger Zone range for the majority of inventory. This confirms that demand has not kept pace with supply and indicates a continued deceleration in transaction velocity. Conversely, new construction remains more active at 26.86 percent, reflecting more competitive builder incentives. The high levels of buyer leverage seen in resale properties do not translate equally to the builder space, where price promotions and financing concessions have helped hold demand at a higher level. Still, when the index is this low on the resale side, it communicates industry wide caution as buyers wait for clarity on interest rates and the broader economic outlook.
The Current New Listing to Pending Ratio of 0.77 aligns closely with recent trends but remains below the 25 year historical average of 0.82. Year to date, the ratio stands at 0.72 which communicates supply growth outpacing contract volume. While contract count is slightly underperforming at 3.4 percent below last year to date, new listings are ahead by 4.1 percent and more than 21 percent above the long term average, creating pressure on sellers. The total difference between new listings and pending contracts since January now sits at 7,176 homes. Excess supply persists but is not accelerating further which helps stabilize prices. In practical terms, this means buyers should remain firm in negotiation, but sellers with competitive pricing and strong condition are still securing contracts.
Prices remain softer than peak but stable compared to earlier correction periods. The average sold price for November is $594,484. That is down 12.82 percent or approximately $87,000 from the May 2022 peak of $681,939. The median sold price is $450,000, down 18.18 percent or $100,000 from the 2022 peak. Tracking against the 36 month prior period, median value is down 2.17 percent. While the decline from peak levels is significant, stabilization is evident with pricing holding relatively firm on a year over year basis and trending within a narrow range since early 2024. Given the 25 year compound annual appreciation rate of 4.981 percent, if today represents the bottom of the correction cycle at $450,000 median, the market would need approximately 53 months, projecting into March 2030, to return to a normalized value of $551,741. That assumes no further negative market forces and aligns with standard post correction recovery modeling.
Sales volume for November totals 2,292 closed transactions. Year to date, 27,974 homes have sold which is down 3.0 percent from the same period last year yet still 8.1 percent above long term averages. Although overall sales are slightly slower, performance relative to history signals decent resilience. The absorption rate, which compares how many active listings sell over a period, currently stands at 16.62 percent. Long term average is 31.70 percent, which highlights how the speed of property movement has been reduced by almost half from historical standards. The Market Flow Score is 4.76 compared to a historical average of 6.59. This confirms the market is functioning but at a slower pace, with less efficiency than normal. Lower turnover rates, rising inventory, and subdued contract volume define this stage of the cycle.
City specific trends show mixed results. The bottom quartile of the market shows just a 0.34 percent increase year over year in median price and a decline of 0.71 percent in price per square foot. The top quartile reports stronger performance at 5.69 percent median increase and 3.14 percent price per square foot gain. Higher value properties are outperforming entry level and mid range housing. Only nine out of 30 tracked cities show positive median price growth compared to last year which confirms wide dispersal in price performance. Higher priced suburbs anchored by schools and amenities are holding pricing better while fringe and overbuilt locations continue to soften.
From a user impact perspective, buyers currently have their best leverage since 2011. With inventory growing and 58.2 percent of listings dropping price, there are meaningful opportunities to negotiate closing credits, rate buy down support, and repairs. Sellers must enter the market priced for today, not yesterday. Proper positioning, staging, and condition strategy should be prioritized before launch. Investors should remain cautious but alert to undervalued supply, particularly where pricing reflects equity mismanagement or carry pressure. Cash buyers may find strong long term opportunities as the market completes correction and sets up for a controlled recovery phase beginning late 2026 or 2027. For real estate agents, client guidance should lean into clear expectation setting. Activity is still occurring. It is simply happening under tighter terms and at longer timelines.
Looking ahead, if median value is holding and the overall market is tracking slightly above historical averages in total sales, Austin remains fundamentally sound. Inventory expansion must be monitored closely into Q1 2026. If absorption continues to underperform and months of inventory extends into the six to seven month range, additional price pressure could surface. However, based on current stability in pricing and moderate YoY transactional performance, the market appears to be following a low volatility correction course rather than a destabilized downturn. For the Austin real estate forecast, this data supports a projected gradual recovery once rates normalize and demand increases. Local housing fundamentals position Austin favorably compared to other national metros although absorption must improve to sustain pricing confidence.
To summarize, the Austin housing market continues through a correction phase marked by elevated supply, cautious demand, and soft but stable pricing. Active inventory has increased to 15,388 listings and more than half have experienced price reductions. Months of Inventory is up to 5.47 which gives buyers control in most areas. Activity Index has declined 10.6 percent year over year signaling softening demand. The average price is $594,484 with median at $450,000, both down from the 2022 peak but holding firm on an annual basis. Absorption is below normal, reflected in a Market Flow Score of 4.76. Overall, the market is progressing toward equilibrium with buyers leading the conversation and sellers adjusting to current realities. Expect muted performance over the next several quarters with potential for long term recovery once economic pressure eases.
